Long-term outlook for global rice supply, demand, and prices

In this series we present the ten-year outlook for global rice supply, demand, and prices. Rice prices are expected to rise over the next decade as consumption increases, production growth moderates, and ending stocks decline. At the same time, the Vietnamese government aims to reduce its rice exports through 2030. We outline how increasing production in the top nine global exporting countries, including Vietnam, could mitigate the higher rice prices expected. The final report discusses efforts that can be implemented to increase Southeast Asian production sustainably and considers potential opportunities for global grain and oilseed players.

Vietnam’s ten-year rice outlook

In 2023, the Vietnamese government approved a strategy to halve the country’s rice exports by 2030. As Vietnam is a major player in global rice exports, RaboResearch expects that a successful implementation would create supply challenges in the global rice market. This report analyzes the outlook for Vietnam’s rice supply and domestic demand and the potential impacts on Vietnam’s trade partners.

Ten-year outlook for global rice prices: Global rice supply growth slows, demand remains steady

Higher consumption, moderating production growth, and declining ending stocks will keep global rice prices elevated and could push them higher over the next decade. If Vietnam successfully implements its strategy to reduce rice exports, it would amplify the rise.

Mitigating rising global rice prices in the next decade

We expect higher base global rice consumption and moderating global rice production growth over the coming decade. As a result, global rice prices during this period are likely to exceed the levels seen before 2023. Increasing rice production in the top nine global exporting countries, including Vietnam, could mitigate the high rice prices expected.

Increasing Southeast Asian rice production sustainably

Increasing rice production in Southeast Asia is a key way to mitigate the expected rise in global rice prices in the next decade. Although rice production in Southeast Asia has been stagnating in recent years, narrowing the production yield gap could increase stocks. This report discusses efforts that can be implemented to increase Southeast Asian production sustainably and considers potential opportunities for global grain and oilseed players.