Ten-year outlook for global rice prices: Global rice supply growth slows, demand remains steady

Approximately 90% of global rice production occurs in Asia. While rice production area and yield in Asia have increased over the past two decades, the rate of growth has been slowing. RaboResearch expects these trends to continue, limiting global rice production and consumption growth in the medium to long term.

Moreover, in 2023, Vietnam’s government approved a strategy to cut the country’s exports by more than half by 2030. Vietnam is a major player in the global rice market and among the top 9 rice exporters. If successfully implemented, this strategy could have a significant impact and compound the effects of limited consumption and production growth in the region.

This is the second report in a multipart RaboResearch series on the long-term outlook for global rice supply and demand. The first report in the series discusses Vietnam’s role in the global market, as well as its likely production and trade over the next decade. It covers two scenarios that explore the possible outcomes of the Vietnamese government’s decision to reduce rice exports to 4m metric tons by 2030. This report analyzes the outlook for global rice prices as Vietnam adjusts its rice exports under the two scenarios. Subsequent reports will discuss efforts that can be implemented to mitigate high global rice prices and potential opportunities for global grain and oilseed players.