Vietnam’s ten-year rice outlook

In May 2023, the Vietnamese government approved a strategy to reduce the country’s rice exports by 2030. As Vietnam is a major player in global rice exports, RaboResearch expects that a successful implementation would create supply challenges in the global rice market. In this report, we analyze the long-term outlook for Vietnam’s rice supply and domestic demand and the potential impacts on Vietnam's trade partners.

This is the first report in a RaboResearch series on the long-term outlook for global rice supply and demand. This report discusses Vietnam’s role in the global market, as well as its likely production and trade over the next decade following the government’s decision to reduce rice exports. Subsequent reports in this series will discuss the outlook for global rice supply, demand, and prices. They will also consider options to mitigate high global rice prices and identify potential opportunities for global grain and oilseed players.