Mitigating rising global rice prices in the next decade

RaboResearch estimates the global rice stocks-to-use ratio and the stocks-to-use ratio of the top 9 rice exporters up to marketing year (MY) 2033/34 will remain below their respective MY 2023/24 levels due to a combination of higher base global rice consumption and moderating global rice production growth. As a result, global rice prices during this period are likely to exceed the levels seen before 2023. Moreover, in 2023, Vietnam’s government approved a strategy to cut the country’s exports by more than 50% by 2030. Vietnam is a major player in the global rice market and among the top 9 rice exporters. If successfully implemented, this strategy could significantly impact global rice prices.

This is the third report in a RaboResearch series on the long-term outlook for global rice supply and demand. Our first report in the series, Vietnam’s ten-year rice outlook, discusses Vietnam's role in the global market, as well as its likely production and trade over the next decade in two possible outcomes of the government’s decision to halve rice exports. Our second report, Ten-year outlook for global rice prices, analyzes the outlook for global rice prices as Vietnam adjusts its rice exports in the two scenarios outlined in the previous report.

This report explains how increasing rice production in the top 9 global exporting countries, including Vietnam, could mitigate high prices in both scenarios and how delaying efforts to increase total production will delay global rice price declines.