Increasing Southeast Asian rice production sustainably

Global rice prices are expected to rise over the next ten years, and increasing production in Southeast Asia is a key way to mitigate these higher rice prices. However, rice production in Southeast Asia has been stagnating in recent years, and production area and the ability to further increase cropping intensity will remain limited for the foreseeable future. Still, we believe it is possible to increase rice production in Southeast Asia by narrowing the rice production yield gap. This report discusses efforts that can be implemented to increase rice production sustainably in Southeast Asia and considers potential opportunities for global grain and oilseed players.

This is the fourth report in a multipart RaboResearch series on the long-term outlook for global rice supply and demand. Our first report in the series, Vietnam’s ten-year rice outlook, discusses Vietnam's role in the global market, as well as its likely production and trade over the next decade in two possible outcomes of the government’s decision to halve rice exports. Our second report, Ten-year outlook for global rice prices, analyzes the outlook for global rice prices as Vietnam adjusts its rice exports in the two scenarios outlined in the previous report. Our third report, Mitigating rising global rice prices in the next decade, explains how increasing rice production in the top nine global exporting countries, including Vietnam, could mitigate high prices in both scenarios and how delaying efforts to increase total production will delay global rice price declines.