ECB preview: Many forks in the road

Trump’s fickle tariff policies pose quite the challenge for the ECB. Not only is the direction of travel unclear, there are now many forks in the road ahead. Trump has ordered a 90-day reprieve, which lessens the impact on growth – for now. However, he can change his mind at any time. This policy uncertainty is already weighing on confidence. We are adding an April rate cut back into our forecast. That cut is additional to the one we had pencilled in for June.