The impact of escalating trade disruptions on global food and agribusiness

This report explores the potential implications of trade restrictions between the US, China, and their respective allies in three scenarios of escalation. A key risk in the current geopolitical landscape is that the US or China could issue ultimatums to neutral countries in the EU and South America. If the EU and South America were to join sides, the impact of their shifting alliances could severely disrupt trade routes. This would create significant global supply imbalances, ranging from surpluses to dire shortages of key products. Shortages could threaten food security in some parts of the world, while oversupply could depress farmer margins and potentially drive severe farm crisis in others.