Tariffs to impact North American food and agribusiness, US consumer impact likely lighter than expected

The Trump administration’s imposition of 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico from March 4, could significantly impact the US food and agriculture value chain. For US consumers it could mean a 3% increase in fresh produce prices and a 1% overall rise in food spending. That said, currency depreciation in Mexico and Canada might reduce the effective tariff impact, potentially lowering the inflationary effect to 0.7%. Products with high exposure to these import markets, (like avocados, tequila, and snow crabs) could see significant price increases and the seasonality of produce imports could lead to more acute spikes in the winter months.