Research

Drastic changes ahead for the nitrogen fertilizer industry in the EU – Part 2

14 November 2024 4:00 RaboResearch

New carbon regulations will raise costs for EU nitrogen fertilizers, impacting exports. Companies are shifting to higher-value products and preparing for decarbonization.

Intro

The European fertilizer industry has embarked on a significant transformation amid rising costs and new legislation around carbon emissions. The gas crisis of 2022 served as a major catalyst for change, and EU regulations like the EU ETS will continue to drive this transformation. One of the initial impacts will be a reduction in the competitiveness of European fertilizer exports due to the phaseout of free emission allocations. However, this impact will not necessarily be prohibitive. For specific trade destinations and products with higher added value, fertilizer exports will remain a revenue generator for the industry. The industry’s path toward decarbonization involves securing flexible access to clean ammonia from both imports and local production. Collaboration within energy and food value chains is a crucial component of company strategies.

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