China’s rising demand for seafood is a major opportunity for exporters

China is poised to drive 40% of the global growth in seafood consumption to 2030, an increase of over 5.5m metric tons. China’s economic prosperity, coupled with its population of 1.4bn consumers and a high affinity for seafood, positions it as the most promising growth market for seafood this decade. However, potential limitations on the supply side, such as enduring environmental damage, scarcity of resources, and increasing wages, could impact both domestic production and opportunities to export. Given the supply-side challenges, China is set to seek resources beyond its borders to ensure adequate supply and close the widening gap between demand and supply by the decade’s end.

The forecast for China’s seafood demand for the remainder of the decade is a combination of volume- and value-driven growth. We anticipate that the growth of upper-middle-class consumer groups and the expansion of e-commerce channels will drive a trend toward demand for higher-value seafood in the long term. As a result, we expect growth in value-driven consumption to outpace volume-driven consumption, potentially expanding China into a USD 29bn market for seafood imports by 2030, surpassing the current US import market, which is valued at USD 25bn. Volume-based opportunities will still be significant, with domestic producers likely to benefit, as domestic products are cheaper, and the mass market is likely to remain price-sensitive.

As China transitions to being the major global seafood buyer and price setter, the decisions it makes regarding seafood consumption and sourcing will have a global impact. These decisions will affect the supply dynamics and prices of most major premium seafood species worldwide, as well as the inputs used to produce them, significantly influencing global seafood trade. Given these factors, China has the potential to emerge as the most important growth market for global seafood exporters this decade. It will be important for these exporters to monitor China’s evolving demand dynamics closely to identity potential untapped opportunities.