Kenyan cut roses bound for EU markets shifting to sea freight: A 2030 outlook

Co-author: Maximilian Schmidt

Assuming shipping in the Red Sea normalizes, we expect Kenya’s baseline exports of cut roses to Europe to gradually shift from airfreight to sea freight in the coming years.

European and Kenyan actors servicing European big-box channels share a strong interest in saving on transportation-affiliated costs and minimizing logistics risks and greenhouse gas emissions, and thus will help grow volumes of cut roses transported by sea freight to Europe.

The shift toward sea freight is driven by:

Reliable, stable, and shortened transit – both inland and ocean freight – will be crucial for sea-freighted cut rose volumes to gain momentum. So far, it remains the main bottleneck for sea freight adoption rates.