Australian dairy seasonal outlook 2024/25: Walking a tightrope

The deadline for new season milk pricing looms, and dairy companies find themselves walking a tightrope. They must send strong price signals while navigating a backdrop of softer market returns. Across the southern milk pool, there is likely to be downward pressure on minimum price offers for 2024/25. Weak returns persist in the export sector, and although prices in domestic markets are outperforming the ingredient market, consumers are trading down, eroding domestic returns.

Still, there are enough drivers of profitability for Australian dairy farmers, including well-supplied local feed markets and a balanced global fertiliser market. Encouragingly, another season of healthy farmgate margins is well within reach.