Cocoa market update: Has cocoa finally found its melting point?

Low farmgate prices in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana will hinder production growth next season. The global cocoa balance sheet had a third-consecutive global deficit in the 2023/24 season, with a possibility of a small deficit in 2024/25. Q1 2024 grind data remained strong in the EU, North America, and Asia, but we expect weakness later this year. The peak of the rally has likely passed. We anticipate lower prices in 2024.