Getting turkey to reclaim its leading role at UK Christmas dinner tables

Consumption of turkey meat at Christmas goes back to the Georgian era, and in the Victorian era it became the most popular meat protein at Christmas, overtaking goose. Charles Dickens’ A Christmas Carol scene in which Scrooge asks a homeless child to help him buy ‘the prize turkey’ hanging in the window of the butcher strengthened the association between turkey meat and the Christmas dinner tables. This tradition, however, is fading away, and UK turkey consumption has dropped sharply since 2003 due to factors related to both demand and supply (see Figure 1).

There are several reasons for the big drop in consumption in the UK. One major reason has been the product’s price positioning compared to other proteins, especially compared to chicken. Feed costs, which make up more than 50% of the cost of a whole turkey, have doubled over the last 20 years, while turkey’s feed efficiency is less competitive than, for example, broilers. Turkey uses more than 2kg feed for each kg of turkey meat, while for broiler this is only 1.5kg/broiler. This has led to a bigger price gap between the two proteins.

Consumer demand has also shifted. Consumers’ preference for whole birds has dropped due to the inconvenience in preparation. The share of whole chicken in the UK has, for example, also fallen by 20%.

Research has shown that in 2020 (YouGov.com) 54% of respondents typically ate turkey at Christmas, with chicken as a second option (10%), followed by vegetarian options (8%), beef (7%), and lamb and pork (both 3%). We expect that, due to the sharp drop in consumption since 2020, the figure for turkey will be significantly lower now.

Ongoing pressure on demand has challenged the positions of producers over the years and made them increasingly operate in overcapacity conditions, which has not favored margins.

The challenge has worsened in the past few years. The industry experienced major operational challenges during the Covid years of 2020-2021, during lockdown periods and with strict regulations at operations and in transport. A sharp drop in out-of-home consumption, together with the operational challenges, affected producers heavily. From 2021, the industry faced rising feed costs and a significant increase in the number of outbreaks of avian influenza in turkey farms in the UK and the EU.

The consequence has been a big reduction in UK turkey production, from 140,000 metric tons in 2020 to only 100,000 metric tons in 2022, with a drop to 80,000 metric tons likely for this year. Imports have been rising but not by nearly enough to keep the same supply of turkey in the UK market (see Figure 1).

This drop in supply has pushed producers to reduce capacity and close some facilities. A further drop of 21% this year is related to lower confidence among farmers to lift turkey production in an environment of high avian influenza risks and big input cost volatility. We can therefore expect that the supermarkets will see less turkey this year and that prices will be higher again.

Turkey meat consumption shows strong regional preferences. It is especially popular in markets like the UK, Germany, France, and Italy, as well as in the US and Canada. Over the years, several new markets have been developed, of which Russia, Spain, and North African markets (like Algeria and Tunisia), Turkey, Mexico, and Brazil are some of the most relevant.

In many markets, consumption is traditionally highly seasonal, especially focused on Christmas or Thanksgiving and mainly focused on whole turkeys. The industry has been able to differentiate based on size, breed, or by offering prepared solutions.

The turkey industry in most parts of the world has been trying to get out of the seasonal market and develop and promote turkey-based meat products year-round, like turkey hams and other processed products. This has been the main focus in continental Europe and has also been successfully developed in the US and Canada.

The drop in UK turkey consumption is more significant than the declines we have seen in other peer countries (see Figure 2). Most of these countries have also experienced similar problems to those in the UK, such as avian influenza outbreaks, higher costs, and weaker seasonal markets, but have been successful in developing new markets for turkey.

Looking at the future for the UK turkey industry, several steps need to be taken to stop the trend of declining consumption and start the recovery of turkey meat consumption and therefore local UK turkey production (see Figure 3).

A first step is marketing. This is important to promote the product further, focusing on boosting turkey as part of the traditional British Christmas dinner, together with developing new products that fit a changed consumer demand.

This links directly to the second step, which is product development. The industry is traditionally focused on the Christmas segment of the market. Developing products based on cuts rather than the whole turkey, and linking to new trends and social media, could help to promote it among the younger generation. It is also important to develop products for the year-round market rather than only for the seasonal market. The US turkey industry would be a good example of where the industry has been successfully developing branded turkey markets in retail and foodservice.

The third step is a further focus on improving the efficiency of turkey production and reducing the gap in efficiency and yield compared to chicken. This could also make turkey meat become a more price-competitive option for consumers. A fourth step is to improve the earning model of the industry. Commitment from all value chain parties will be important to regain a sustainable earning model and mitigate risks in the value chain.