Global pork quarterly Q4 2024: Producer profitability stabilizes, but industry remains cautious on expansion

Improved profitability has slowed herd contraction in most regions, yet producers are moderating rebuilding efforts. Disease pressure in parts of Europe, South Korea, and Southeast Asia are slowing production growth, as are US slaughter constraints and EU regulatory headwinds. Questions around consumer sentiment and pork demand are also weighing on expansion decisions.

Changes in the Mexican and Japanese administrations, an election in the US, and the trend toward regionalized trade could create a less supportive trade environment for pork in 2025. Retaliatory trade actions like China’s anti-dumping case against the EU also highlight the global industry’s need to remain nimble. Recent labor and weather-related logistical challenges only compound trade uncertainty and highlight the need to build domestic demand and diversify markets.

Although global feed inventories are nearing their best level in years and hog production costs are lower in most regions, dry growing conditions in South America and Asia are a reminder that this feed cost advantage does not necessarily apply to all regions equally. In 2024, lower corn and soymeal costs have provided margin relief and incentivized heavier weights in some regions, while tighter wheat supplies have kept costs high in other regions.