Global pork quarterly Q1 2025: Producers remain cautious on herd expansion amid rising uncertainties

Production costs are likely to decline further, but weather could still influence harvests and feed costs. Soybeans may see a record inventory in 2025, even with the USDA’s recent adjustment lowering its estimate for 2024/25 ending stocks. Dry conditions in Argentina and a delay in planting the Brazilian safrinha corn crop are expected to reduce South American corn production, leading to slightly higher corn costs moving forward.

Rising political tensions are heightening risks for global trade in 2025. Recent turmoil in countries like South Korea and potential policy changes from the US and its trading partners are adding great uncertainty to labor availability, capital distribution, and global trade. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies could potentially lead the pork industry to focus on short-term, wait-and-see strategies instead of long-term investment.

Disease risks remain. Disease outbreaks continue to impact markets, with African swine fever in Asia and Europe; porcine respiratory and reproductive syndrome virus around the world; and a recent foot and mouth disease outbreak in Germany. Changes in countries’ disease statuses could disrupt global trade. Various countries’ suspension of German pork imports highlight how diseases are challenging supply chains. Biosecurity will remain a key issue for the industry, with opportunities to invest in animal health improvement.