Semiannual fertilizer outlook: Challenges persist in fertilizer demand recovery

In the first half of 2024, fertilizer prices showed no signs that the year would sustain the pace of recovery observed in 2023 after the 2022 drop. And now, as we approach the Southern Hemisphere crop season, the situation for some fertilizers, such as MAP and DAP, remains challenging. Their prices are considerably higher compared to previous years and to other fertilizers like potash.

Projections of strong global crop yields continue to put pressure on commodity markets, leading to lower prices. As a result, farmers worldwide are experiencing decreased operating margins after a very positive cycle between 2020 and 2023.

Our affordability index, which tracks both fertilizer and commodity prices, indicates that the positive cycle for fertilizer affordability will likely end within the next eight months.