Global poultry quarterly Q4 2024: Growth returning to historical levels after several slow years

The outlook for global poultry markets this year is bullish. Given that consumption growth is accelerating in Europe, China, the Middle East, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, global consumption growth for 2024 is forecast at 2.5% to 3% compared to 1.1% in 2023 and 0.6% in 2022. This marks a return to historic levels after several years of slow growth.

Lower feed prices and high prices for competing proteins make poultry an attractive product for consumers worldwide. Strong retail demand, recovering foodservice demand, and the sustainability ambitions of customers who substitute chicken for pork and beef also support fast-rising demand for poultry. This strong demand is leading to profitable conditions for the industry in most regions, but northeast Asia is an exception, with ongoing oversupply in China and Japan. The poultry industry in both countries is growing above long-term average growth levels, leading to relatively low prices, rising stocks, and pressure on imports.

Global trade is expected to keep growing but fall short of global market growth. Ongoing movement toward food security strategies in countries in the Middle East and Africa, weak demand in northeast Asia, and geopolitical tensions will continue to impact global trade. Rising tensions between China and the EU and US are impacting trade in agricultural products and could spread to chicken and pork trade. The turmoil in the Middle East will continue to impact global trade between the EU and Asia.

Keeping markets balanced will be important to maintain the positive outlook. The current bullish market conditions could push producers to expand too optimistically, leading to oversupply like that seen in China and Japan. Certainly, in a context with ongoing high risks, such as animal disease, feed price volatility, and geopolitical tension, supply growth discipline is important to keep operating under balanced market conditions.