Global poultry quarterly Q1 2025: Strong growth, geopolitics and trade disruptions ahead

The global poultry industry is expected to follow its strong growth momentum in 2024 with another year of 2.5% to 3% predicted global market growth in 2025. This ongoing industry growth is driven by poultry’s affordability in times of pressured spending power, certainly in periods where other proteins are more costly. Changing patterns, with increased preference for poultry, also supported the growth, as did the industry’s strong marketing and product development power, and some demand recovery after a few years of slow (or negative growth) in several regions following Covid-19 and pressured spending power. A relatively new trend is the customer commitment to sustainability, which is leading to an extra shift to poultry in developed countries due to its relatively lower carbon dioxide footprint compared to other animal proteins.Most of the growth will be in emerging markets in Southeast Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa. Developed markets will, however, also see ongoing growth, with Europe currently outpacing global market growth.

Global supply growth has remained relatively challenged by the impact of avian influenza and the tight global supply of breeding stock. This is likely to keep some restrictions on development in those regions experiencing the most significant challenges. Operational costs are expected to remain relatively flat due to North America and Brazil’s substantial supply of corn and soybeans. The most critical risks for the outlook are a potential La Niña year and crop-growing developments in Europe. Avian influenza will remain a key challenge for the industry in 2025 and a significant potential disruptor for local markets and global trade. Global trade will stay strong but be impacted by rising geopolitical tensions and ongoing pressure from avian influenza. The move toward a higher focus on food and resource security, the local economy, and more global trade relationships will likely challenge access to several markets. It will create changing trade flows and more volatility in volume and prices. Ongoing challenges in the Middle East will add further stress for global traders due to the ongoing rerouting of trade via the southern route between Europe, the Middle East, Africa,and Asia.

The outlook for 2025 looks positive, but maintaining market balance will be essential to keep the industry’s positive momentum. Recent price drops in the EU, South Africa, and Thailand are wake-up calls for perhaps too optimistic growth. From an investor perspective, the strong momentum will lead to more investment in greenfields, modernization, consolidation, and internationalization.