Update

Brazilian coffee monthly update: March 2025

20 March 2025 9:41 RaboResearch

Read about exports, prices, weather, stocks, and crops in our latest update about the Brazilian coffee industry.

Rabobank
    In February, Brazil exported 3.3m bags (60kg) of coffee, a decrease of 18% MOM and 10% YOY. In the first two months of the year, the country exported a total of 7.3m bags, 5.4% lower compared to the same period in 2024. This decline in exports was expected given the current scenario of limited stocks in Brazil. This situation is likely to continue at least until the 2025/26 Brazilian harvest enters the market. In March, the barter ratio remained practically stable compared to the previous month, requiring 1.1 bags of coffee (60kg) to purchase 1 metric ton of fertilizer (blend 20-05-20). Nevertheless, this value is 53% cheaper compared to the same period in 2024, when 2.3 bags of coffee were required. Despite the recent increase in potash prices, the drop in urea prices compensated, resulting in no significant changes in the blend (fertilizer) price compared to last month. After a strong appreciation in February, coffee prices in Brazil fell in March. Following the international market, average arabica coffee prices depreciated by 3.5%, while conilon coffee prices dropped by 2.1% compared to February. Part of this decline may be associated with the reduction in net long positions of non-commercial funds. Additionally, recent improved weather conditions in Brazil and the expectation of better supply (harvest in Vietnam and the start of harvest activities in Brazil from April) also contributed to this movement. Following a rainy January, the main coffee-producing regions experienced drier and warmer weather in February. This period is crucial for coffee bean development. The impacts have been limited so far, and the return of rains in mid-March has brought relief. More rain is expected in the coming weeks, aiding bean development.

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