Research
Easy-Peel Citrus Gaining Ground in the Americas
Easy-peel citrus, generically known as mandarins, include clementines, tangerines, tangelos, and more. US domestic production and imports have grown considerably in the past decade and easy peelers are on the road to become the most consumed fresh citrus fruit in North America. In South America, exports began to increase in 2017 thanks to greater production from Peru and Chile. This growth is expected to continue in the coming season, but at a slower pace. Challenges on the production side and logistics constraints continue to put pressure on both countries. Nevertheless, demand remains healthy for South American easy peelers in the Americas.
Full Report
US Consumers Not Taking It Easy on Easy Peelers
Mandarins Becoming the Darling in the Citrus Space
Availability of mandarins in the US increased at a compound annual growth rate of 6% during the past decade to about 7 pounds per person per year. If the trend continues, in the next few years mandarins will surpass oranges as the most-consumed fresh citrus in the US (see Figure 1). The attractive combination of convenience, healthfulness, and taste will continue driving consumer demand for mandarins in the US.
Since mid-1990s, US mandarin consumption has surpassed domestic production and the gap is widening. Fuelled by increasing year-round demand, US mandarin imports have accounted for about of one-third of the domestic consumption in the last seasons (Figure 2). On the other hand, the export share of production has remained around 7%, with Canada and Japan as the primary destinations.
US mandarin imports have seemingly stabilized in the last couple of years (see Figure 3). Counter-seasonal imports, particularly from Chile, Peru, and South Africa have increased considerably (see Figure 4), while US imports from Morocco have remained stable as these compete directly with increasing US domestic production.
US mandarin imports have expanded at the front end and back end of the import season, which now spans from June to October with sustained volumes (see Figures 5 and 6).
Room for More Acreage?
As US demand for mandarins grew faster than domestic production, prices increased during several seasons, incentivizing mandarin plantings, particularly in California. While bearing acreage in California increased more than sixfold in the past 20 years, reaching 67,000 acres in 2021, bearing area in Florida has declined due to phytosanitary pressures (Figure 7).
Price information for mandarins from California is limited for confidentiality reasons as the industry is highly concentrated on the marketing side. Statistical evidence from Florida suggests that prices received by mandarin growers have steadied over the past couple of years (see Figure 8). This, combined with increasing production costs, and supply-side constraints (water and labor) will limit acreage expansion in the short run.
South America Providing More and More Counter-Season Easy Peelers
Production and Exports will Continue the Upward Trend
South American easy peeler exports reached a record figure in 2021 of 572,000 metric tons, mainly because of increasing shipments from Argentina and Uruguay (see Figure 9). From the year 2017 onwards, Peru and Chile already started to expand exports.
In the case of Peru, varietal renewal, water and land availability, along with good demand, favored the increase in production for a fruit that has been a good complement to extend the working season after blueberries and table grapes and to share the export season with avocados.
As for Chile, great development was made in the past decade when table grape producers of the northern regions were forced to move towards citrus production due to increasing competition. Currently, more than 11,000 hectares are planted, with 48% in the north zone (see Figure 10).
Argentina is finally showing growth after years of declining acreage and production, while Uruguay presented its highest production figure in six years. With all this, we see a stable growth in exports in the seasons ahead, although with a lower growth rate, as plantings in Peru are expected to slow down, while the ongoing drought is putting pressure on Chilean production in the northern regions.
Favorable Outlook for 2022 in the US, Not So Easy in Europe
North America is the main destination market for the South American easy-peel citrus (see Figure 11), led by Chile and complemented by volumes that meet US quality standards from Peru, Argentina and Uruguay. In the last five years, volumes to this market increased by 57%, while exports from South America to Europe started to rise in 2020 thanks to the greater shipments from Argentina and Peru.
The 2022 season will present some extremes: shortages in the US and potential oversupply in Europe. While demand in the US market will remain strong and US domestic citrus supply will hit a record low, Chilean easy-peeler exports are expected to decrease. Therefore, after the Moroccan easy-peel citrus season is finished, prices should remain high for the first half of the Southern Hemisphere season (see Figure 12).
On the other hand, oversupply in Europe looms. Peruvian easy-peeler exports are expected to increase in 2022. Peru will increase efforts to grow its presence in the US market, now the European market is challenged. Russia was the main destination for Argentine easy-peelers in the last decade, accounting for about 50%. For South Africa and Peru, Russia represented less than 8% of their exports. But these trade flows need to be redirected to alternative markets, potentially resulting in oversupply.
