Update

Brazilian coffee monthly update: April 2025

18 April 2025 12:00 RaboResearch

Read about exports, prices, weather, stocks, and crops in our latest update about the Brazilian coffee industry.

Rabobank
    In March, Brazil exported 3.3 million bags of coffee, a 4% decrease from the previous month and a 25% drop compared to March 2024. The first quarter of 2025 saw exports totaling 10.7 million bags, 11% less than the same period in 2024. As anticipated, the slowdown is due to the offseason and lower local stocks. The situation may improve with the arrival of the 2025/26 Brazilian harvest in the second half of the year. In April, the barter ratio has remained stable, requiring 1.1 bags of coffee (60kg) to buy 1 metric ton of fertilizer (blend 20-05-20). This is 36% cheaper than the same period last year, when 1.7 bags were needed. Domestic coffee prices fell slightly in March, with arabica down 3.2% and conilon down 2.3% from the previous month. In April, the downtrend has continued, with average arabica prices dropping 2.6% and conilon prices falling 15.9% compared to March. Despite this, prices remain high, up 104% for arabica and 54% for conilon compared to April 2023. Low stocks and limited supply support prices, while conflicts in the Red Sea and US tariff uncertainties add market volatility. Arabica prices fell 6% between Liberation Day and the announcement of the 90-day pause, then rose 5% (as of April 16) after the pause was announced. Besides market fundamentals, non-commercial funds have been active in the ICE arabica market, further increasing volatility. As in February, March saw below-average rainfall (except in Cerrado Mineiro). This dry and hot period brought localized impacts in some producing regions, especially in the south of Minas Gerais and Cerrado Mineiro. However, from the second half of March, the rains returned and brought relief to the situation. Following the crop tour, RaboResearch estimates the 2025/26 harvest at 62.8 million bags, a 6.4% decrease from the previous cycle. On one hand, a 13.6% drop in arabica coffee production is expected compared to the previous cycle, at 38.1 million bags. On the other hand, robusta coffee production is estimated at a record 24.7 million bags, growing 7.3% compared to the previous harvest. Dry weather in 2024 affected arabica production, but robusta productivity remains high despite a pessimistic outlook for Rondônia.

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