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Brazilian coffee monthly update: January 2025

17 January 2025 5:38 RaboResearch

Read about exports, prices, weather, stocks, and crops in our latest update about the Brazilian coffee industry.

Rabobank

    In December, Brazil exported 3.8m bags of coffee (60kg), a drop of 22% MOM and 8% YOY. Despite the decline, the country set a record, with 50.4m bags exported in 2024 – a 29% increase from 2023. Green arabica coffee exports increased 20% compared to 2023. Other notable exports included 9.4m bags of robusta coffee and 4.1m bags of soluble coffee, which increased 98% and 13%, respectively, compared to the previous year. Despite the excellent performance, Cecafé’s report highlights that although many logistical bottlenecks were overcome in 2024, about 1.6m bags were not exported between January and November. Monitoring coffee exports in the coming months will be crucial, as coffee exports are expected to slow due to 2024’s smaller harvest, potentially bringing more market volatility. In January 2025, the barter ratio continues to decline, with 1.2 bags of green coffee (60kg) needed to buy 1 metric ton of fertilizer (blend 20-05-20). This represents a 46% decrease compared to the same period last year, when 2.1 bags were needed. Despite the increase in fertilizer costs, especially urea and potash, the appreciation of coffee prices favored the barter ratio for farmers. Coffee prices in Brazil continue to rise, as observed in December. By January 15, average prices of arabica and conilon coffee had increased by 5% compared to December 2024. Besides high levels in global markets, the appreciation of the US dollar against the Brazilian real also contributed. Among other factors, uncertainties about the extent of damage to the 2025/26 Brazilian crop (with irregular weather in some regions) continue to bring market volatility. In recent months, the price gap between arabica and conilon has been widening. In September 2024, conilon was 1.6% more expensive than arabica. Now, arabica is 21% more expensive. Although this is still below the 49% average of the past five years, it signals that local roasters are gradually shifting back to conilon. In December, most arabica coffee regions, except Guaxupé, received above-average rainfall. In contrast, robusta coffee regions experienced below-average rainfall. In Espírito Santo, this is not a major concern due to high accumulated volumes and extensive irrigation, but recent hot and dry conditions challenge Rondônia. Isolated hailstorms in southern Minas Gerais had localized impacts. So far in January, most coffee regions have seen rain, but southern Minas Gerais still faces some irregular weather.

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